Superforecasting

In 2015, McClelland Stewart published a book: Superforecasting, THE ART AND THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTION  by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. I bought and read it and I am convinced that everyone of us can be forecasters to varying degrees of predictive accuracy. Some of us are excellent top naturals at this and know that they are; but the greater majority do not know. They do not because it has never occurred to them to have a go at it.

What Tetlock and Gardner found is that the accuracy of predictions drops off if the time span of the prediction stretches to years. Therefore, the game is to predict, and you have to specify your time frame, as to when something will happen.

Now that the unfortunate The Donald set the conditions for a welling of so many who need to prove to everyone else on this planet that they are GOOD and HOLY and that they do care for refugees, this is the forecast we are setting before you: 

From the body of all Muslims in the Western nations, will the next murderous attack on Western civilians -
be between 2017. 01. 31 to 2017. 02. 28 or 
be between 2017. 02. 28 to 2017. 03. 31 or 
be between 2017. 03. 31 to 2017. 04. 30 or 
be between 2017. 04. 30 to 2017. 05. 31 or 
be between 2017. 05. 31 to 2017. 06. 30 or  
be between 2017. 06. 30 to 2017. 07. 31 or 
be between 2017. 07. 31 to 2017. 08. 31?

You could say: I forecast that the next attack will be in 2018.

Or you might be one of the political PC do-gooders who are dead against Trumps immigration restrictions and whose implicate forecast is:
There will never ever be a murderous attack on civilians of Western nations by Muslims refugees be in the US, UK, France, Holland, Germany, Denmark, etc.  

What is my forecast?

I forecast that it will be between 2018 - 2019.

I forecast that there will not be in just one Western nation. 

I also forecast that when it happens, it will hit 3 or 4 Western nations.

Across this time period, I forecast that the rape of German women will continue by refugees that Angela Merkel admitted and still continues to admit into Germany.

I also predict, that these refugees will continue NOT to rape their own Muslim women.