Thursday, December 27, 2018

Trade, $ and PROFIT

Today, the volume of domestic retail sales in China exceeds that of the US. And as you know, if the retail sale in the US went up, it bespoke of an increase in the GDP of the US.

For 2018 the amount of Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, in China has continued to grow into the billions. This is notwithstanding THE Donald's efforts to crush China to its knees to beg the US to give it relief from the punishment of her tariffs. Certainly there is no evidence of Chinese begging.

And you are very sure that THE Donald's expectations that China will be forced to do this by his tariffs and then upping them in his Phase to to 25%, will never happen. China is a 5,000 year old civilization nation. For it to do this will be a massive loss of face. The foundations of government in China could never take such a cataclysmic event and survive the fury of its suppressed population.

When THE Donald fails to get the China to beg, then his curse on China, as is know in magic circles will rebound upon him and the US. He will be hit with a loss of face which in a Trumpian reality is utterly intolerable.

Now, the evidence of the bloom in the Chinese economy despite all of THE Donald's brouhaha of his tariffs on China continues:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-12/27/c_137702853.htm

And in five years, the value of the freight carried in the trains in the New Belt and Road has soared to US$5 trln.

The problem is what THE Donald fails to see is that his economy has a population base of 327+ hundred millions. This economic base has to compete with a population base of over 5+ billion people that include the power economies of China, Japan, S. Korea, ASEAN and the emerging power economy of India.

The political and economic center of gravity that was once in the mid-Atlantic because of the combined power of the US and the then Br. Empire and Europe is not sited as it was. It is now located where it was for over 3000 years but for the recent 200 year because of ascendancy of Britannia Empire and Europe and the US. This ascendancy has long reached it tipping point and is now on a slide to the other side.

Britain sadly is in decline and most certainly does not have any imperial power. Europe is tight on money and is confused about its place in the world and in the new emerging order of things. The US is desperately clinging onto its hegemony. That it has to do so, speaks volumes re how things are today.

The oddest thing is that there are some real nuts amidst the elite of the US who speak of the importance of the US going to War with China.

Since the end of WW II the US did not win in these wars: 
1. Korean, 2. Vietnam, 3. Afghanistan, 4. Afghanistan, 5. Iraq, 6. Syria. It was triumphant in 5. Panama and 6. Grenada. 

To war with China, like all wars, you have to put into the battlefield ground troops after you have bombed what you thought was the strategic area you needed to in China. Then you have the pour in more men to expand your territorial hold and eventually push out to conquer all of China. That is victory.

Well, this is the question? How many men do you think you have you to put into the field to hold down 1.4 billion people as this is the population of China.

Even if the US was able to wipe out 1 billion, China will still have a residual population base of 400,000,000. This is greater that that of the US  population base. 

And do you think that whilst the US is conquering China, as we described above, the Chinese have their entire nuclear tipped missiles, nuclear powered submarines, army, navy and air force on hold?

These so called US elites calling for the US to go to war with China are manifestly INSANE.

The interesting thing is that there is no elite who has risen to chastise them for uttering such a policy that manifestly is to the detriment of the US.




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